2013 NBA Picks & Projected Lines: DO NOT BE A VICTIM OF THE VEGAS "TRAP"

[Bad_Cat]

I have been working on a handicapping system for the NBA for several months which focuses on certain matchups that have a large line fluctuation and is determined from the early opening line release and my projected line. I am in the process of backtesting but that process will take several days due to the amount of games that have already been completed this year. If you have any questions about my system or my plays feel free to ask. The plays that I post will include the game opening line. The lines may be slightly different than what your current line is with your book so it's up to you what line is included in your wager, if you decide to tail at some point.


02/22/2013

02/22/2013: 805New York(32-19, 13-11 away) @ 806Toronto (22-33, 14-14 home) 4:00PM PST

Opening Line: New York -2.5
My Projected Line: Toronto -8.5 to -11.5

PLAY: 805New York -2.5, -110

02/22/2013: 809Houston (30-26, 11-18 away) @ 810Brooklyn (33-22, 20-10 home) 4:30PM PST

Opening Line: Brooklyn -3
My Projected Line: Houston -6.5 to -9.5

PLAY: Brooklyn -3, -110

02/22/2013: 815Minnesota (20-31, 7-18 away) @ 816Oklahoma City (39-15, 23-4 home) 5:00PM PST

Opening Line: Oklahoma City -12
My Projected Line: Oklahoma City -18.5 to -21.5

PLAY: Minnesota +12, -110

02/22/2013: 817Orlando (15-39, 6-20 away) @ 818Memphis (35-18, 21-8 home) 5:00PM PST

Opening Line: Memphis -11.5
My Projected Line: Memphis -18.5 to -21.5

PLAY: Orlando+11.5, -110

02/22/2013: 821San Antonio (44-12, 22-10 away) @ 822Golden State (31-23, 17-7 home) 7:30PM PST

Opening Line: San Antonio -2.5
My Projected Line: San Antonio -9.5 to -12.5

PLAY: Golden State +2.5, -110

02/22/2013: 823Portland (25-29, 8-20 away) @ 824LA Lakers )26-29, 17-11 home) 7:30PM PST

Opening Line: LA Lakers -10
My Projected Line: LA Lakers -1.5 to -4.5

PLAY: LA Lakers -10, -110

 

[Bad_Cat]

Larger card than normal for tonight. Good luck with your action.

 

[towelboy02]

Thanks for posting your plays. How do we read your opening line vs "my projected line"? i get it as if your projected line is greater than the opening line, than it's a value line, but seems like you play the opposite.

ie:
Opening Line: New York -2.5
My Projected Line: Toronto -8.5 to -11.5

are you saying toronto should be the game by 8.5 - 11.5? But your play is New York -2.5.

Thanks

 

[Bad_Cat]

Thanks for posting your plays. How do we read your opening line vs "my projected line"? i get it as if your projected line is greater than the opening line, than it's a value line, but seems like you play the opposite.

ie:
Opening Line: New York -2.5
My Projected Line: Toronto -8.5 to -11.5

are you saying toronto should be the game by 8.5 - 11.5? But your play is New York -2.5.

Thanks

Yes thats correct. I play sides in which their is a large fluctuation between the opening line and my projected line. For example, in my College Basketball thread yesterday 2013 College Basketball Picks & Projected Lines: DO NOT BE A VICTIM OF THE VEGAS "TRAP" one of the two games that I played was San Diego @ Portland. My projected line was San Diego -5 to -8 and the opening line was a Pick'em. In that case their was about a 5 point differential between my Projected line and the opening line. I use this information and play the side that Vegas has the line tilted toward. With your example I have Toronto as a heavy favorite but Vegas has New York as the favorite, thus I play the side that Vegas has the line tilted toward. If I have at least a 5+ line differential between my projected line and the Vegas opening line then I make a play. One would think that I would play the side that my projected line favors but thats not correct, I play the side that Vegas favors, thus my thread title. I hope that makes sense.

 

[Bad_Cat]

I should only be producing about 10-12 plays per week based on backtesting so it's out of the "Norm" that I have 6 plays tonight so we will see what happens here. I play whatever my formula and the lines provide me with.

 

[Bad_Cat]

Thanks for posting your plays. How do we read your opening line vs "my projected line"? i get it as if your projected line is greater than the opening line, than it's a value line, but seems like you play the opposite.

ie:
Opening Line: New York -2.5
My Projected Line: Toronto -8.5 to -11.5

are you saying toronto should be the game by 8.5 - 11.5? But your play is New York -2.5.

Thanks

AND yes, after I concluded with my handicapping for this matchup my projected line shows that Toronto should be at least a 8.5 favorite. To some that may appear to be a high line but it is what it is and I don't argue with it.

 

[BLeeDingMonEy]

Good Luck tonight Bad_Cat. Will be following your results!!

 

[Bad_Cat]

Thanks for posting your plays. How do we read your opening line vs "my projected line"? i get it as if your projected line is greater than the opening line, than it's a value line, but seems like you play the opposite.

ie:
Opening Line: New York -2.5
My Projected Line: Toronto -8.5 to -11.5

are you saying toronto should be the game by 8.5 - 11.5? But your play is New York -2.5.

Thanks

One of the best plays for me this year (wasn't posted here at the RX Forum) was on 02/20/2013 between G. Mason and Hofstra. The opening line was G. Mason -6.5 I believe and my projected line was a Pick'em. Thus the play for me was G. Mason at -6.5 and they won the game 79-50.

 

[Bad_Cat]

Good Luck tonight Bad_Cat. Will be following your results!!

Thanks bud. I would be satisfied with a 4-2 night tonight. Good luck to you also.

 

[towelboy02]

Yes thats correct. I play sides in which their is a large fluctuation between the opening line and my projected line. For example, in my College Basketball thread yesterday 2013 College Basketball Picks & Projected Lines: DO NOT BE A VICTIM OF THE VEGAS "TRAP" one of the two games that I played was San Diego @ Portland. My projected line was San Diego -5 to -8 and the opening line was a Pick'em. In that case their was about a 5 point differential between my Projected line and the opening line. I use this information and play the side that Vegas has the line tilted toward. With your example I have Toronto as a heavy favorite but Vegas has New York as the favorite, thus I play the side that Vegas has the line tilted toward. If I have at least a 5+ line differential between my projected line and the Vegas opening line then I make a play. One would think that I would play the side that my projected line favors but thats not correct, I play the side that Vegas favors, thus my thread title. I hope that makes sense.

Great forecast. i will tail and look forward to see how the season goes. Good luck!

 

[Bad_Cat]

Good luck to you also.

 

[lookin4awinner]

DUMB QUESTION ALERT!!!!!!!

But, is the home/away team factored into "YOUR PROJECTED LINE" already?? Or is that an after the fact +/- toward your pick???

Thus possibly make the 3 home teams tonight more or less of a projected play????

Warned you, a dumb question...

good luck with this... I love systems when it comes to NBA.... b/c it not HANI-CAPP-ABLE most times.....

 

[stosh]

This just might be crazy enough to work

 

[Bad_Cat]

DUMB QUESTION ALERT!!!!!!!

But, is the home/away team factored into "YOUR PROJECTED LINE" already?? Or is that an after the fact +/- toward your pick???

Thus possibly make the 3 home teams tonight more or less of a projected play????

Warned you, a dumb question...

good luck with this... I love systems when it comes to NBA.... b/c it not HANI-CAPP-ABLE most times.....

The home and away differential is factored in with my posted projected line.

 

[Bad_Cat]

This just might be crazy enough to work

It does and has worked. BOL with your action.

 

[sponge22]

i like it..gl

 

[Bad_Cat]

BOL sponge.

 

[doogieboy]

Hope it pans out for ya. Rough start but not tragic at 2-4. (2-5 counting CBB) Gl this weekend.

 

[CatsOverUnders]

Lol indeed, nojuice. Bottom line with me is I'll give you a high-end winning percentage with my over/unders, but just don't listen to me when it comes to money management. If someone were to flat bet all of my over/unders, you'd probably fare better than myself with my own games.

And nojuice, Bad_Cat claims he's "good"... but guess who it really is under another name? sportsforumVIP. Was BANNED four months ago for making an ass out of himself in the football forum (While posting losing picks with yet another losing record hahaha), not to mention having a pretty bad record in baseball last year, while quitting multiple times (Due to said losing record).

He'll probably be banned again before the season starts. He tried selling picks through PMs to random people hahaha he's still the biggest laughingstock at The RX.

 

[CatsOverUnders]

What happened to that "new system," sportsforumVIP? Looks like another failed attempt, scrub.

So this 2-4 night, combined with your current 7-game losing streak, makes you... 2-11?

Ouch. sportsforumVIP/Bad_Cat has a record of 2-11 in basketball picks.

Uh, that's pretty bad. Time to re-ban this retard.